In the last 75 years, the world’s population has grown from 2.5 billion in the 1950s to 8.2 billion today. According to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 report, the population will increase by more than two billion people in the next decade but is expected to slow down by the mid-2080s.
By 2024, 63 countries, including China and Germany, will have reached their peak population. Another 126 countries are expected to peak by the second half of the century.
John Wilmoth from the UN Population Division said, “This is a big change compared to the UN projections from ten years ago.” The current report says there is an 80% chance the world population will peak before 2100, up from a 30% chance predicted a decade ago.
Countries that have already peaked in population will see a 14% decrease over the next 30 years. The UK’s population is expected to peak around 2072 at 76 million, up from 69 million in 2024, then drop slightly to 74.3 million by 2100.
The US and 126 other countries, including India, Nigeria, and Pakistan, will keep growing until the second half of the century. Nine countries, including Angola and Nigeria, are expected to double their populations between 2024 and 2054 before peaking.
Kathleen Mogelgaard from the Population Institute pointed out the growing demographic divide. Over 100 countries will soon peak, while many poorer nations will continue to grow.
Fast population growth in low-income countries could worsen poverty and hunger. Meanwhile, aging populations in richer countries may lead to challenges in social care and a shrinking workforce. However, UN Under-Secretary Li Junhua sees a shrinking global population as potentially good, as it could reduce environmental pressures.
“Still, slower population growth won’t remove the need to reduce the average impact of each person’s activities,” he added. Looking ahead, India will remain the most populous country, followed by China, though with a smaller population.
